While I’d love for Facebook to announce a phone or mobile operating system on Wednesday, I have a sneaking suspicion they won’t. Here is our rationale behind Facebook’s decision to wait.
Largest Announcements Saved For f8
Facebook wants to rally developers around the Facebook phone and the best way to do that would be to make a large announcement about a new “mobile social platform” at f8, Facebook’s periodic developer conference. Just as Apple announced the iPhone with a number of development partners who had already built applications, Facebook would probably want to have a large group of developers on board. While they could already have partners, Facebook would drum up much more interest by bringing developers from around the world to make the announcement.
We’ve Been Wrong Before
Simply put, we get things wrong all the time. While we’d love Facebook to announce a mobile operating system, a new phone, and develop the cure to cancer in a single week, it’s a pretty big project to rebuild a mobile operating system (such as Android). While I have the greatest faith that Facebook has the capability to launch a mobile OS, simply put, I don’t want to set our hopes too high.
Deals Are Being Tested
Last week we broke the news that Facebook is testing a “Deals” product and given that it includes mobile integration, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Facebook officially announce the product this week. If it’s truly ready for testing with large brands, that means it’s extremely close to being ready for full launch. As such, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Deals product rolled out on Wednesday.
Groupon Is Too Hyped
Seriously, Groupon is making a lot of money but how long can that last? With rapid growth there’s a very good chance they can keep things going but how long is Facebook willing to sit on the sidelines while the company works toward generating more revenue than Facebook with a fraction of the user base? Facebook wants to get in on the action which is another reason to assume that this week’s announcement will be about Deals, not a mobile operating system.
Can’t Come Up With A Fifth
The fact that we can’t come up with five reasons is exactly why we still hope that Facebook unleashes a monster announcement next week, rebuilding Android into the social mobile operating system of the future. Whatever it is, Facebook no doubt believe that it’s worthy of rallying all the Silicon Valley press members for the fourth or fifth time in a matter of weeks. We’ll have to wait and see what they announce!