Social media advertising revenues may quadruple from $2.1 billion in 2010 to $8.3 billion in 2015, and Facebook would take the dominant share of that, according to a new study.
BAI/Kelsey forecasts a 31.6 percent compound annual growth rate of 31.6 percent for social media advertising revenues.
Currently, display ads predominate on social media, and BAI/Kelsey believes that spending on this format will rise from $2.1 billion in 2010 to $7.7 billion in 2015, for a compound annual growth rate of 30.4 percent.
These figures mostly represent spending on Facebook ads, and no investment in Twitter. However, by 2015 what BAI/Kelsey calls the “social non-display segment” will get $600 million in 2015.
Jed Williams, analyst and program director of BIA/Kelsey’s Social Local Media practice, said in a press release:
It’s no surprise that Facebook commands a dominant share of all social ad impressions served and ad revenues generated… As the social market leader, it already serves the most display ad impressions of any digital company, surpassing both Yahoo and Google. We fully expect Facebook to increase both impression share and ad revenue, as buyer awareness accelerates and creative formatting and targeting improve to optimize performance.
The BAI numbers jibe with previous forecasts we’ve seen about future advertising revenues; but since the dollar figures just about sync with Facebook’s own stated expectations, that suggests there won’t be any money left on the table for other social networks after the Palo Alto (soon to be Menlo Park) giant takes its cut.
Readers, what do you think about this particular forecast — is it too bullish or too bearish?